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Friday, March 4, 2016

Hear me now, laugh at me later

So freaking behind on all the blog posts I've been wanting to make, but here's a quickie:

A friend asked me on Facebook yesterday what my prediction is for the election in November, and it took me a day to come up with my reply and here is what I wrote:

"Hard to give a short answer to this, Chris. If you and I get a vacation day for every time one of us hears in the next 8 months how it will all come down to turnout, we'll get most of 2017 off. The other one we'll hear a spitload of times is how these 8 months are a political lifetime and SO much can happen between now and election day so it's impossible to predict. So let's stipulate those two alphorisms (if that's what they are) are a given.

There are great arguments for why each of DD  (Donald Drumpf) and HRC will win but to keep it simple, assuming there are no surprises and turnout is roughly the same for the Ds as the last 2 elections, which is certainly not a given, I'll go with what I have been saying for months and even though I've been wrong everywhere but Iowa, I'll double down on it here. I can not believe that when voters enter that booth in November and see the name Donald S Trump on the ballot, no matter how intrigued and entertained they were over the past year and maybe even supported him, when they really try to picture that guy in the office for 4 years...they'll swallow hard and vote for Hillary."

But just remember that this is from the same guy who said a few months back that Jeb! would be the R nominee and he is long gone. And I still have not given up on a miracle - that R voters will come to their senses and make Kasich the nominee!

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